Strategists from both parties agree that President Clinton's grand jury admission of an affair with Monica S. Lewinsky and his nationally televised faux apology may produce political fallout. The disagreement is over how severe the fallout will be.
Few believe that the president's relationship with Lewinsky and subsequent obfuscation will inspire many Democratic voters to suddenly cast their ballots for GOP candidates. Two other outcomes are far more likely: First, the one-quarter to one-third of the American people who detest Bill Clinton will vote, no matter what. Armed guards surrounding the polling places could not keep them from casting their ballots against Clinton and his party. Second, some Democrats demoralized by the president's behavior and admission will remain home on Election Day, hurting the party's candidates up and down the ballot.
So far, it's difficult to say for sure that Clinton's woes will hurt his party's fortunes in November. There is anecdotal evidence in some states that more voters are identifying themselves as Republicans and that the GOP is doing better now than in trial heats. Republican pollsters are divided
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