Trott Retirement Moves MI-11 from Likely Republican to Toss Up

This morning, Michigan Rep. Dave Trott became the third Republican in five days to announce he will retire from a marginal seat in 2018. Unlike Reps. Charlie Dent (PA-15) and Dave Reichert (WA-08), Trott is only in his second term and was already vulnerable after receiving 53 percent in 2016. Furthermore, Democrats already have a potentially strong candidate running: former Obama administration Auto Task Force chief of staff Haley Stevens.

Reichert Retirement Moves WA-08 to Toss Up

If Democrats could have picked one House GOP incumbent to retire in 2018, it would have been GOP Rep. Dave Reichert, who represents a suburban Seattle seat Hillary Clinton won by three points, but has cruised to reelection on the strength of his reputation as the former King County sheriff. Today, Democrats got their wish. Reichert's exit moves Washington's 8th District all the way from Likely Republican to the Toss Up column.

ME-02: Poliquin Moves to Lean Republican

Democrats haven't been able to crack the code in Maine's blue-collar 2nd CD since Rep. Mike Michaud left to run for governor in 2014. Once a Democratic bastion, the district swung hard to GOP Gov. Paul LePage in 2014 and President Trump in 2016, and Republican Bruce Poliquin defied expectations. But Marine veteran and state Rep. Jared Golden's entry into the 2018 field gives Democrats hope they can capitalize on a favorable political environment.

Two Nations

As the 2016 election dramatically revealed, the United States has split into two political nations. In each of those distinct coalitions, the majority Republican or Democratic Party separately controls at least two-thirds of the presidential Electoral Votes, the seats in Congress, and the governorships. That leaves the balance of power with roughly 20 percent of the states and voters—from Ohio to Wisconsin, and Colorado to Arizona—where partisan control is up for grabs and the nation’s political control is determined.

UT-03 Special Election: GOP Primary Heats Up

Believe it or not, Georgia's 6th CD wasn't the final special election of 2017. Utah Republican Jason Chaffetz's resignation from the House to become a Fox News commentator has spawned a spirited GOP three-way primary to succeed him on August 15. And although this is the 16th most Republican and likely the most heavily Mormon district in the country, the final general election margin on November 7 is worth watching.

Tags
Subscribe to